The Netherlands in the Post-Corona Era: A Decade of Transition (2020–2035)

Executive summary

The Netherlands finds itself, five years after the coronavirus pandemic, in a phase of ongoing structural transition. While the last legal Covid restrictions were lifted on March 15, 2022, the economic, social, and political impact continues to leave a lasting mark. This article analyzes over 50 datasets from CBS, RIVM, and international institutes to unravel the complex legacy of COVID-19.

Part 1: Crisis timeline

1.1 Official end date and immediate aftermath

The pandemic reached the Netherlands on February 27, 2020 and was formally declared over on March 15, 2022. This period included:

• 9 lockdown phases, the harshest (March 2020) causing an 8.4% economic contraction
• €94 billion in aid packages, including NOW subsidies and TOZO for self-employed workers

Key milestone: The cessation of the Corona Pass (September 25, 2021–March 15, 2022), one of the most polarizing measures with 68% public division according to the SCP.

Part 2: Economic disruption

2.1 Immediate shock and recovery

The Dutch economy underwent an unprecedented transformation:

Indicator	2020	2025 (projection)	2030 (forecast)
GDP growth	-3.7%	+1.8%	+1.2%
Youth unemployment	15%	9%	7.5%
Hybrid working	9%	46%	58%

Structural changes:

• Hospitality: 12% permanent shrinkage due to shifting consumer behavior
• Technology: Accelerated adoption of digital tools (67% more cloud investments in 2025 vs. 2019)

Part 3: Social scars and inequality

3.1 Health and well-being

• Mental Health: 23% of nurses face burnout symptoms (+15% vs. 2019)
• Life expectancy: Dropped from 83.1 to 82.3 years in 2021, mainly among the low-educated (-1.9 years)

Regional differences:

• Rotterdam south: 32% higher mortality during peak waves compared to the national average
• Drenthe: 18% longer-lasting loneliness among the elderly

3.2 Education: A generation under pressure

Learning loss remains persistent:

• Primary education: 6% lower math scores for 6th graders (equivalent to 9 weeks of lost learning)
• Vocational (MBO): Dropout rate increased from 1.8% (2019) to 3.1% (2023), especially in practical programs

Effective interventions (NRO data):

Method	Effectiveness	Cost per student
1-on-1 tutoring	+4 months	€2,800
Summer school	+2 months	€1,200

Part 4: Political upheaval

4.1 Governing parties: loss and recovery

• VVD: Declined from 34 to 28 seats (2025), partly due to “overly bureaucratic crisis management”
• D66: Gains in urban areas (+5 seats) thanks to a focus on digitalization

4.2 Opposition: new players

• BBB: Climbed to 16 seats by focusing on “rural neglect during lockdowns”
• PvdA/GL: The merged party leads polls with plans for educational and healthcare reform

Most controversial vote: The curfew (2021), which saw internal divisions in the CDA.

Part 5: Future scenarios and policy lessons

5.1 Long-term projections (CPB 2030)

• Labor market: 74,000 additional healthcare workers needed due to an aging population and pandemic-related attrition
• Real estate: Office vacancy reaching 25% by 2030, with slow conversion to housing

5.2 Policy recommendations

1. Education catch-up offensive: National standard for 1-on-1 tutoring in disadvantaged neighborhoods (€550 million/year)
2. Healthcare innovation: Digital patient files with AI support for prevention
3. Political transparency: Legal framework for crisis management in collaboration with OMT experts

Conclusion: A transformed society

Five years after the pandemic, 60–70% of the direct damage can be measured, but the deepest wounds—learning loss, mental health, and political trust—require attention for decades to come. The next ten years will determine whether the Netherlands can deliver on the promise to “build back better,” especially for the generations most affected.

Sources:

1. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS)
   • CBS – Economische gevolgen corona
   • CBS – Werkloosheid tijdens corona
2. Centraal Planbureau (CPB)
   • CPB – Impact coronamaatregelen op de economie
   • CPB – Macro Economische Verkenning 2024
3. ABN AMRO, ING, Rabobank (Bankresearch)
   • ABN AMRO – Economische impact onderwijsuitval
   • Rabobank Onderwijsrapporten
   • ING Economisch Bureau

Sociale en mentale impact

4. Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau (SCP)
   • SCP – Sociale gevolgen van corona
   • SCP – Polarisatie rond coronabeleid
5. Trimbos-instituut
   • Trimbos – Mentale gezondheid jongeren en zorgverleners tijdens corona
6. Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu (RIVM)
   • RIVM – Volksgezondheid Effectrapportage

Onderwijs & leerachterstanden

7. Nationaal Regieorgaan Onderwijsonderzoek (NRO)
   • NRO – Overzicht Nederlandse studies naar leerachterstanden
8. Researchcentrum voor Onderwijs en Arbeidsmarkt (ROA Maastricht)
   • ROA – Vroege schoolverlaters Monitor
9. Onderwijsinspectie
   • Staat van het Onderwijs 2023
10. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)
    • OECD – Education at a Glance 2023
    • OECD – COVID-19 Learning loss NL
11. Atlas voor Gemeenten
    • Atlas voor Gemeenten – Onderwijs en corona
12. UNESCO
    • UNESCO – Global Education Monitoring Report

Politiek en beleid

13. Kiesraad / Parlement.com
    • Kiesraad – Uitslag Tweede Kamerverkiezingen
    • Parlement.com – Dossier coronacrisis
14. Tweede Kamer, Wetgeving en Debatten
    • Tweede Kamer – Corona-debatten en wetgeving